Thursday, August 09, 2007
Hypertiger on Gold
I can't see a gold confiscation...There is no gold standard like there was in 1933...
Any liquidity around will race to where there is a yield...causing a whole bunch of blowoff tops in markets all over the world...Then the implosion will follow.
All the contracts in existance are based on the belief that there will be more money in existance in the future than exists now...They will all be busted...
basically every bill on Earth will at some point become impossible to pay....They are now but more and more money is being manufactured at the request of the consumer to pay all the bills...That is going to end.
The inflation greater than previous inflation of the money supply to maximum potential will reach maximum potential and transform into inflation less than previous inflation to maximum potential...
All the contracts need inflation greater than previous inflation to sustain their existance...inflation less than previous inflation kills them.
Ultimately everyone at some point is going to crack and flip like Cramer.
Screaming for someone or something to save them...
GOLD is off because it's price is inflated like everything else...When the growth rate of the money supply slows GOLD or anything being inflated by the growth of the money supply can and generally will deflate in price...
In 2006 according to the World Gold Council the total identifiable demand was 3,380.4 metric tonnes
1 tonne is 1000 kilograms and there are 2.2 pounds in a Kg so 1 Tonne is equal to 2200 Lb of Gold...
Jewellery consumption accounted for 2279.3 tonnes of the 3,380.4 metric tonnes of total identifiable demand or 67%
Official coin accounted for 129.1 tonnes...or about 4%
Jewellery is hard to eat...And subtracting retail markup leaving just the Gold melt down/content...and most jewellery is not worth much.
Soon to be bankrupted people are most likely not going to cause a spike up in demand for Jewellery...
Most of the rise in the price of gold the past few years is from speculators in search of a yield...
Yields better than the popping Dotcom bubble was going to supply...
I was telling people in 1998-1999 to dump equities (Nazdaq DOW S&P mutual funds) and buy Gold and silver coins...They just said I was a Y2K nutter and to LOL STFU...
Coins have content and face value...
Pre 1964 US silver coinage very rarely circulates any more...becuase the content of the coins is worth more than the face value...The only way silver coins will circulate again is if the face value is less than or equal to the cost of the content and the economic zone in which they are to circulate is a closed system of trade or has a trade surplus and industrial demand combined with monetary coinage demand is less than or equal to mine supply.
The USA has been living beyond it's means for close to 100 years now.
So the inevitable implosion is going to be massive...
Every day in the USA currently...consumers request commercial banks directly and indirectly to manufacture around 11 Billion dollars of new money...or about 4 Trillion dollars of new money a year...
What the FED and ECB are doing is a drop in the bucket...compared to what the population of the USA pumps out every day. [8/9/07 Marketwatch The European Central Bank loaned 49 firms a total of nearly 95 billion euros ($131 billion) -- the most it has ever provided -- after rising worries about spillover from difficulties in the U.S. subprime mortgage market left banks uneasy regarding lending to each other. Across the Atlantic, the Federal Reserve carried out a $12 billion one-day repurchase agreement, on top of an earlier $12 billion 14-day repo.]
In 2002 when I began tracking the consumer the total money supply of the USA was 31 Trillion dollars...since then consumers have requested another 15 Trillion dollars to be manufactured... and the total money supply is now 46 Trillion dollars...
And the total global money supply is around 190 to 200 Trillion dollars equlivent (The monetary system is Global...every country operates the same just the USA is #1 when it comes to how much their consumers pump out into the global economy)...150 Billion is not even 1 tenth of 1% and is about as much as US consumers pump out in 14 days.
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