Sunday, February 03, 2008
Game Over
The only way to fight deflation is with greater inflation.
Stop inflation? Stop eating, breathing, or drinking and see how long your lifespan lasts...
And while Ben says the the FED is ready to chop rates...the short term rates are dictated by the short term bond markets...The markets dictate what the FED does...When yields driven by consumers rise the FED is eventually forced to raise rates and when yields driven by consumers drop the FED is eventually forced to cut...
Rates have been DEFLATING for 25 years...and once they reach maximum potential (near zero) they will have to rise...Then the 1944 Bretton Woods global trade system will implode to oblivion.
Ben is doing the right thing...They are trying to get to the next election so the new installed puppet can have the benefit of blaming the previously installed puppet for all the austerity measures that will be required when the 1944 Bretton Woods global trade system reaches maximum potential and implodes.
The USA has been hyperinflating for decades...
If the below "hyperinflation" were to have took place in a little over a year like in early 1920's Germany...everyone would be saying OMG look at the hyperinflation...But over the space of 50 years...It's..."we're no where near hyperinflation yet"
The below chart basically looks like what Germany looked like 1919-1922.
The actual comedy portion of the hyperinflation with workers being paid with wheelbarrels of money lasted just over a year 1922-1923...
Then was followed by a hyperdeflationary implosion which sent out a hyperdeflationary shockwave into the rest of the "global economy"...The inflation in the USA began slowing significantly by 1926, then stopped by 1928, then reversed in 1929...an implosion...the period is called the Great Depression...
Like I said "but once we get deeper into it...no one will remember or care."
Everyone is going to do their best to escape the implosion like all the previous times...
Hint: a recession is the beginning of a depression
It could easily take a bit of time yet until everyone maxes out completely, accepts their fate, and gives up.
The rate rise was stopped in 1982...That's where the similarities between Germany and the USA ended...Rates have been making lower highs and lower lows since then...
Inflation less than previous inflation to maximum potential follows inflation greater than previous inflation to maximum potential when inflation greater than previous inflation to maximum potential reaches maximum potential.
Once rates inflating less than previous inflation to maximum potential (like the past 25 years) reach maximum potential...rates will begin inflating greater than previous inflation to maximum potential.
And with consumers basically maxed out...that will annhilate the system along with all the contracts on Earth based on lower and lower rates for more and more money...
Unfortunately for the believers of hyperinflationary jackpot scenario rates can't keep dropping forever like they have been for the past 25 years...once they hit near zero they will have to rise...or game over...
But if they rise Game over...
So just game over...
When the Short term treasury market which dictates rates stops rallying...Then the FED will be forced to stop cutting rates. The FED has an ability to manage long rates...but very little ability to manage the short bond market which has massive turnover volume...It's why short rates rise higher than long rates just before a recession...(Hint: FED does not control/set rates)
Federal Funds hit 3% before escaping the 1991 recession and 1% before escaping the 2001 recession.
This recession...FEDERAL FUNDS will have to go lower than 1% in search of supporting volume...
Prior to the 1991 recession the household debt to income ratio was around 80% and in 2001 around 90% currently it's around 120% it was 55% in the early 1960's
Below 100% consumers are basically forced to request more and more and more...past 100% they are forced to request less and less so there will be no escape from this recession...Consumers are basically maxed out and yields would have to drop below zero...which is impossible...
Hey I'll lend you $100 but you only have to pay me back $95...that's what -5% or below zero rates looks like...
Japan's rates actually were able to rise from 0.1% to 0.5% but with the USA caving in now they will implode sympathetically with the USA...Europe will too...
The Federal Reserve is just one central bank out of over 100 in the 313 year old City of London global branch network. The British pound started out as a pound of stirling silver centuries ago...
Debasement is constant...There never has been stability...Just the illusion of stability...The Universe is not static or fixed...it's dynamic...
Bush was needed for a brief period of time...and come November his time is up...If the regime attempts to hold on...the population will turn on it. A new puppet is needed to replace the old...the new puppet will have the benefit of being able to blame the previous puppet for all the austerity measures that are going to be needed when the global system reaches maximum potential and implodes.
As far as I can tell the top is gaming this into the election...
Make no mistake...the time you have left to kid yourselves is rapidly running out now...And the Bubbles that are popping are so huge...you all don't even know they exist...like this mind boggling bubble that has been inflating for decades and is now popping...
Maybe you have noticed the Neo Cons admitting they were wrong? Or other signs like the BIS saying that the Global system is broken and we need a new one...Or Japan saying that the carry trade is over...It's started.
In the weeks and months ahead it's just going to get more and more bizzare as years of hyperinflation slows then stops then reverses.
Just ask your your dear old buddy...
"What I point out is that we're in a turning phase, and that the extraordinary improvements that have occurred in the world economy in the last 15 years are transitory, and they're about to change ... So, I think this whole process will begin to reverse."
Sir Alan Greenspan K.B.E. (Knight Commander of the Order of the British Empire) Dec. 27, 2007, in an interview with National Public Radio.
Longer than 15 years but once we get deeper into it...no one will remember or care.
The implosion is the logical conclusion to a choice that was made centuries before anyone existed.
Civilization as you currently comprehend it depends upon the global branch network as much as you all depend upon breathing air...or your circulatory system.
Eliminate the system and press the rewind button on over 300 years of history.
Unfortunately or fortunately the system can not be sustained forever...all it can do is inflate to maximum potential...then eliminate itself...implode to oblivion...
Unfortunately or fortunately you all were born at the right time to see what happens at the logical conclusion of the choice that was made by our ancestors centuries ago...
Ultimately you all will be wishing we could live all these days over again...Because once maximum potential is reached...none of us are going to live long enough to see them again...
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