Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Inflation/Deflation
The price of oil will collapse when the consumer does unless the oil producers cut supply quicker than demand is cut...There are bills that need to be paid...so producers that can will cut production and raise wholesale prices leading to retail price rises...and hyperinflations don't last long and are followed by hyperdeflations...
When Germany reached maximum potential in 1923-1924 their economy hyperdeflated...there were mass layoffs, food riots and German troops were machine gunning people in the streets...The less wonderful aspects of the cycle are not talked about much...workers getting paid with wheelbarrels of money is kinda entertaining...bodies of former workers laying in pools of blood in the streets is not...
It's impossible to inflate forever...so deflation is coming...one way or the other...and when deflation reaches maximum potential...inflation to maximum potential will begin...bury the dead and spray the blood into the storm drains...
The below chart shows the previous inflation of the USA next to the current...The difference between Germany and the USA is the speed...In Germany the inflation took months to reach maximum potential (It's why hyper is added to the word inflation) while in the USA it took years and in the case of the current inflation to maximum potential...decades...
Any hyperinflation that does show up will last months at most followed by a hyperdeflation...or the whole 1944 Bretton Woods global trade system just implodes to oblivion from this point...It's going to implode anyways...now or within a a handfull of months...game over...
And when Cramer is saying cash is king...all he is saying is that you should sell off all your paper assets in the markets to tards and sit on the sidelines...sell all your positions in the markets and buy silver and gold coins included...silver and gold coins are cash...in an inflation it's he who obtains the most wins...
lets say you get a ration of food every day...(inflationary phase) two cans...but you save one can a day until you have 365 cans...lets say the cans stop...for six months (deflationary phase) well all those without savings die of starvation...but you still have 182 cans of food at the end...many lost their lives during the deflationary phase...you only lost 182 cans of food, survived the deflationary phase and just replenish your stocks...
...in a deflation it's he who loses the least wins...
If you did not request more debt and had a source of income that was hyperinflating during a hyperinflation...you could easily pay off all your debts...money is debt and debt is money....So during a hyperinflation it's actually not the total money supply that is inflating...the total debt is...But not what you owe unless you request more debt to be manufactured...
With the household debt to income ratio at 110%...I don't see how a 1920's German style hyperinflation could even ignite...Because past 100% and consumers are forced to request commercial banks to manufacture less and less new debt...not more and more which is what is needed to sustain a hyperinflation...
Germany of the 1920's was a major exporter...The USA is a major importer...There is no manufacturing base to sustain a hyperinflation either...There will be mass lay offs...and laid off workers can't request much new debt to be manufactured with no source of income to service it's existance...
The only tool the FED has is their ability to monetize debt...The FED could buy all the assets that don't sell because they are priced too high...A lower price is a loss on the books...but...If there is no other buyer after that then inflation can not be sustained...Unless the FED then turns around and buys everything It just bought again by selling it all to itself but for a higher price...and that does nothing...
Basically it's all just talk to sustain consuer confidence...because if the consumer begins to think something is wrong...consumers will begin to cut back on spending...and the implosion of the US economy that is now in progress and moving very slowly will accelerate and move very rapidly...Before those managing it desire it to.
Those managing it are attempting to get to a point where it's planned to fall to pieces...While they are all babbling and creating a smokescreen to obscure the situation the scapegoat is being readied...A mezmerizing spectacle of some sort...to focus attention away from the system as cause and onto an effect as the cause...
The FED and Ben Bernanke are only effects of the system...they are not causes of the system...
You all did as your employers said...and if you were too lazy or out of shape to accomplish your tasks...you basically died...
That's how it was back in the good old days...It will be a return to the good old days...
most of you have no clue what work is anymore...A traditional "honest days work" would hospitalize or even kill most of you...
"'The spectacle of men fighting for work...' My God! This is terrible! Battling for the privilege of working all day for enough to eat--and the next day go at it again; and so on until the earth rattles on their pine boxes."
"Cannot the good God do something to relieve his wretched children? Or is this thing to go on forever? Why not give some good-hearted, honest man supreme power for four years, and let him improve God's world or blow it up. He could not make it much worse than it is, for the great mass of mankind. A judicious hanging bee in Wall Street would be a good measure with which to begin the reformation."
-- I.D. [Ignatius Donnelly] in The Representative, 29 August 1894
The 1896 depression in the USA is not talked about much...The so called "Great depression" was the last one and gets all the attention...
Well if the top...your source of income...collapses...they live on savings while you starve...So It's good to keep them from collapse as long as possible...Gives you all more time to continue to post. But ultimately they will collapse...and be forced to cut back on expenses and lay the vast majority of you all off...Then play time will be over...the top is just trying to make it to where they have planned to do that anyways...just now is not the time...
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